With a 8 for 14 prediction rate so far in these playoffs, Canuckz.com has predicted about as accurately as Maggie the Monkey. With that said, we’re pretty stubborn here at Canuckz.com and we’re not giving up. So without further ado, here is the MUCH anticipated Canuckz.com Stanley Cup Final prediction:

The Matchup:

The Chicago Blackhawks and Philadelphia Flyers have a few things in common. They both have goaltenders who nobody thought would be starting goalies at the beginning of this season, nevermind playing well for Stanley Cup finalists. They also have a very strong defense corps, especially their in their top four. Chicago’s Keith, Seabrook, Campbell and Hjalmarsson are probably equaled by Pronger, Timonen, Coburn and Carle for the Flyers. Up front, both teams are lead by young captains, surrounded by a good mix of young and veteran forwards.

Goaltending:

Antti Niemi versus Michael Leighton. Who would have predicted that these two goalies would be squaring off in the Stanley Cup Final before this season started? Amazingly, neither one has been a weakness for their team in these playoffs. I think both goalies will be in for a rude awakening in the finals. Neither goalie has had to face the kind of net presence, bumping and overall chippy play that they’re due to see in this round. The Blackhawks have made Anderson, Luongo and Nabokov look very ordinary, often due to traffic in front. You can bet that the Flyers will be trying much of the same on Niemi, and the types of players to make it happen effectively. As for who has the edge, based on play you’d have to say Leighton, but I believe that his strong play has been more a product of Philly’s defense. The edge goes to neither team, it’s a wash.

Defense:

The way Philadelphia’s defense is playing, I think you have to consider this position a wash also. The difference between now and the regular season has been Chris Pronger. Pronger has really stepped up his game and is playing over 28 minutes a game. He’s also the perfect guy to battle with Chicago’s big strong forwards in front of the net. With that said, Keith and Seabrook might be the best defense pair in the NHL. Philadelphia’s defense also hasn’t had to face a team with a decent offense since they faced New Jersey in round 1.

Forwards:

The edge at the forward position goes to Chicago. Jonathan Toews has been the best player in the playoffs, and is playing alongside the always dangerous Patrick Kane and the red hot Dustin Byfuglien. They’ve rolled through the playoffs nicely, and they still haven’t gotten much production from Marian Hossa. The rest of their forwards are all playing at the top of their game and appear to be very healthy.

As for the Flyers, they’ve now got Jeff Carter back in the lineup, but how healthy is he? He only got 17 minutes of ice time in the last game against Montreal, so things appear to be looking better. Mike Richards, Danny Briere, Claude Giroux and Simon Gagne are carrying the mail for the Flyers forwards, who are good and gritty. They aren’t as deep as the Blackhawks though, and they don’t have as much top end talent, although it’s close.

Coaching:

Both Joel Quenneville and Peter Laviolette come into this series with great resumes. Laviolette has won a Stanley Cup, while Quenneville has been one of the more successful coaches in this decade. It has been said that Quenneville has an easier time winning the matchup game because of his personnel, and I happen to agree with that. He is able to throw Keith and Seabrook on the ice to eat up big minutes, while he has four centres who are excellent defensively. David Bolland is his shutdown centre, but John Madden, Jonathan Toews and Patrick Sharp could all play that role if needed. Laviolette is in a similar situation with his defense, as he has two excellent pairings that eat up huge minutes.

X-Factor:

There are two x-factors are play. The Blackhawks have been good all season, and came close last year. How many times do we see teams lose in the conference final or Stanley Cup final and come back to win the top prize the following season?

The X-Factor for the Flyers is the incredible roll they’re on. This team was the last team to qualify for the playoffs, needing a shootout win against the Rangers on the last day of the season just to squeak in. They’re also the first team in 35 years to come back from a 3-0 deficit, as they did in round 2 against Boston.

Who’s Hot?

The Flyers are hotter than they’ve been all season and have won 8 of their last 9 games. The Blackhawks are rolling also, winning 8 of their last 9 as well. One might give the edge to the Blackhawks, considering they knocked off the Canucks and Sharks, better teams than the Bruins and Canadiens.

Prediction:

Cinderella often makes it to the Stanley Cup Final but never wins it. I don’t think this year will be much different. The Blackhawks are healthier and more battle tested than the Flyers, who have scraped and clawed their way past relatively weak opponents. The Flyers will make it interesting, but ultimately the better team will win. Blackhawks in 6.

After an impressive 4-1 win, the Canucks will live to play another game. So just how did this team, that looked so beleaguered on home ice in game 3 and 4, manage to extend the series? Remarkably, the keys to victory have become astonishingly clear (to this blogger at least).

The Canucks got excellent goaltending from Roberto Luongo, while the team in front of him limited the chances against. They also stayed away from penalty trouble for the most part, and killed them off when they took them. Everything else in this series has remained fairly constant. They’ve been good on the power play and at even strength. Just clean up your PK and get Louie to be on top of his game.

The Return of Bieksallent

In my series prediction I said that Kevin Bieksa needed to play like he hasn’t in two seasons and/or Luongo has to be great, and well, they both did that last night. Kevin Bieksa played like he did in 2006-07 last night and it was much needed. The guy has been in my doghouse all year, playing more like a fifth defenceman than a top four defenceman.  After Sami Salo went down with an injury, Bieksa was counted on big time and he stepped up.

Salo Injured – But Still Ballin’

Thankfully contrary to early reports, Sami Salo DID NOT rupture his testicle in game 5. What exact injury he has though, is uncertain. He’s apparently day-to-day, but who knows what that means come playoff time. It doesn’t sound like he’ll be back for game 6, but after that is anybody’s guess. I could go on a parade of ball jokes now, but they’re kind of tired already (so much so that you can follow ‘Sami Salo’s Testicle‘ on Twitter).

Big Game From Burrows

Alex Burrows only had an empty netter last night, but that doesn’t tell the story. Burrows was planted firmly in front of Antti Niemi on two of the three goals that Niemi gave up. Those screens were the main reason that those goals went in and Burrows hasn’t gotten enough credit for it.

What a debacle game 3 of the second round turned out to be. A 5-2 result in which the Canucks looked out of it past the 10 minute mark of the 1s t period. At the end of the night I felt like the Blackhawks had won, and won easily. In game 2 they had to scratch and claw their way to victory, but not in game 3.

Outsmarted

Chicago picked their spots to get under the skin of the Sedins and Luongo and they did it largely without taking a penalty. The ridiculousness of no goaltender interference penalty being called yet in this series is beside the point. They’re getting away with it. Dustin Byfuglien and Jonthan Toews both got away with inteference on Luongo which lead to Hawk goals. Those guys need to be taken care of by the Canucks D.

The Canucks need to ride that fine line also, the key being to do it without taking a penalty. The example of what not to do came from Alex Burrows on Brian Campbell in the 2nd period. A costly penalty for roughing up Brian Campbell, making it look too obvious, lead to a power play goal, and you have your game winner. David Bolland on the other hand was able to rough up Daniel Sedin while taking him off the ice with him, and there en lies the difference.

Goaltending

If the Canucks are to win this series, Roberto Luongo has to be better than Antti Niemi. Case closed. Niemi was better than Luongo last night as Luongo was unable to handle his rebounds all night. Of course his defense isn’t making it easy on him, as they were unwilling to move players from the crease or even willing to box players out. Take a look at Kevin Bieksa on the first goal for an example of what I mean.

GM Place = Library

What is up with the fans at GM Place? I have been to every playoff game at the Garage thus far and it is quiet in there. In the first round I chalked it up to LA not being a big rival and the fans not being as excited about the first round as we used to. But now, I don’t know. The team could have really used a jolt of adrenaline from the fans to start the game and it simply wasn’t there. I believe of the 16 playoff teams this post season, Vancouver probably has the 2nd or 3rd quietest fans, perhaps only ahead of Detroit and Ottawa. In game 3 versus Chicago, the fans were unable to start the ‘go Canucks go’ chant by themselves even once. That’s a first for a Canucks playoff game in my experience.

Reasons for this? Perhaps the 6:30pm start time played a factor, but it’s only half an hour earlier than usual. Perhaps the Canucks have finally priced most ‘real fans’ out of the building (ticket prices started at $150 each). What also must contribute to it is the brutal job done to pump up the fans before the game. There’s a decent pre-game montage on the video screen, but everything else leaves a lot to be desired. They play the quietest intro song in the league, ‘Where the Streets Have No Name’ by U2 and have a few flag wavers on the ice. Maybe it shouldn’t be any surprise that it elicits a quiet response by the fans.

What an entertaining game we saw on Monday night. High intensity, high drama, complete with a last minute goal to win the game. Unfortunately for Canucks fans, the Blackhawks prevailed on this night, winning 4-2 and evening the series coming back to Vancouver. Lets take a look at the bad, good and what to look forward to.

THE BAD:

The Canucks lost, so lets start off by venting about what they did wrong. After getting an early goal and having all the momentum on their side, they were unable to get the knockout blow to make it 3-0 in the first. Still, 2-0 was a good lead but not good enough. The momentum seemed to turn on a dime and the Canucks couldn’t muster much of an attack the rest of the game. Antti Niemi was barely tested the rest of the way which allowed the Blackhawks back in it.

With that said, the Canucks lost this game on the power play. It looked terrible tonight, in particular their last three power plays in the second and third period. They had one measly shot in their final three attempts, all of which would have turned the momentum in their favour and would have gone a long way to ensuring a victory. This is especially critical when you are facing a goalie who hasn’t looked great yet in this series in Antti Niemi. To make matters worse, they allowed the Hawks to score shorthanded, evening the game and setting the stage for Kris Versteeg to win it late.

THE GOOD:

It wasn’t all bad for the Canucks on Monday night. First, their start was phenomenal. I’m sure the United Center faithful were shaking in their boots to start the game off. Also, Roberto Luongo looked strong once again, which is a good sign for this Canucks team. They also limited their penalties, giving the Blackhawks only two power plays in the game. Through two periods, the Canucks were in good shape, ahead by a goal and playing fairly even with Chicago. Alex Burrows made one of the smartest plays this season, giving the puck to Ben Eager to draw a too many men on the ice penalty.

The third period in my opinion would have been a lot different had they been better on the power play. If they could have generated a few more chances, even if they didn’t score, that would have gone a long way to shifting the momentum in their favour.

LOOKING AHEAD:

It goes without saying that game three is a big one. Will the Canucks be able to assert some dominance at home as they have most of this season? Will having last change allow the Sedins to free-wheel a little more than they have thus far? We’ll find out on Wednesday night, in what promises to be another nail biter.

The Canucks looked like a team still pissed off about their series loss last year, storming the Blackhawks right off the hop, while the Blackhawks looked a bit surprised by the push and never really seemed to recover. They’ve earned at least a split in Chicago, which is huge for a team like the Canucks that is so much better at home than on the road.

Goaltending

The Canucks looked like the better team in game 1, no doubt, but if the teams switched goalies the score would have been much different. Roberto Luongo looked real good, while his counterpart Antti Niemi looked absolutely terrible. Niemi made some big saves early, but looked shaky while doing so. His pads were like trampolines, bouncing pucks into the middle of the ice for Canucks to pounce on. Meanwhile, Luongo looked like the Luongo of old. The only goal beating him being scored on a 5-on-3. He was square to the shooter, letting out very few rebounds and even making a couple of acrobatic stops. Cristobal Huet replaced Niemi in the third period which begs the question: who starts game 2? Well, evidently the Hawks have completely lost faith in Huet, because it will be Niemi playing again in game 2 according to Joel Quenneville.

Full Team Effort

The Canucks are 3-1 in this year’s playoffs playing in arenas with smoking hot ice girls (the Kings ice girls for your reference). Ok, seriously though, Saturday night’s game was a complete team effort. All four lines scored a goal, and all six defensemen looked very strong. Two of the guys most in my doghouse, Kevin Bieksa and Andrew Alberts, I have to admit looked steady.

Grit Factor

I thought that the Blackhawks were pretty good at finishing their checks on the Canucks d-men (which should scare the crap out of all Canucks fans, they can ill afford an injury to one of their top defensemen). The Canucks meanwhile, did much the same and their hustle was nice to see. Vancouver consistently won loose puck battles, including Mason Raymond outworking Brent Sopel to gain possession and set-up Christian Ehrhoff on the first goal.

Cheapness Factor

You know what I mean by “cheapness factor”, those dirty little cheap plays that are so huge in the playoffs but aren’t serious enough to warrant a penalty, but throw the other team off their game. Examples of these are face washes, spraying snow on/falling down on/bumping the opposing team’s goalie, and taking cheap shots on the other team when the game is out of hand. Chicago was great at this last year, but they were unable to do much of it in game 1. With all the talk of Dustin Byfuglien before this series, he was a non-factor, as were most of the Hawks getting into Luongo’s kitchen. It was Henrik Sedin, I repeat, Henrik Sedin spraying Antti Niemi instead. Every time a Blackhawk got near Luongo, he was quickly ushered away by the Canucks defensemen. Once the game was out of reach, I expected a few cheap shots by the Hawks or at least challenging someone to a fight. The Blackhawks did very little to respond in front of their home crowd and went very quietly.

Looking Ahead

As good as the Canucks looked and as bad as the Blackhawks looked, game 2 will probably look a lot different. Chicago got its wake-up call and will respond with a much better effort. If Luongo continues to outplay Niemi as bad as game 1, it probably won’t matter. Look for a more determined Blackhawk team with some mixed-up lines and the insertion of one or both of Adam Burish and Ben Eager. I expect the Canucks to go with the same lineup, with the only potential lineup change being Ryan Johnson in for Rick Rypien.

This image (along with this song) has haunted Canucks fans for almost an entire calendar year. Patrick Kane, mouth guard dangling and all, scoring the insurance goal late in game 6, his third goal of the night. The Canucks insist that they should have won that series, to which I disagree (they had fewer points than Chicago, and were beaten in six!). The Hawks were the better team last year, and throughout the regular season have been the better team this year. No doubt, they are the favourites. With that said, this series should be a close one and could go either way, depending on a few keys of the series:

Traffic in Front of Luongo:

The Blackhawks were very successful last season getting traffic in front of Roberto Luongo, bumping him, falling on him (accidentally on purpose of course), basically completely throwing him off his game. The Canucks defensemen will need to make life miserable for Blackhawks wishing to crash the crease. But more importantly, Roberto Luongo needs to not let it bother him. Last year he showed his frustration, which only fueled the fire.

Traffic in Front of Niemi:

Something I never understand about teams in the playoffs is that when a team is playing a star goalie, they try to get lots of traffic in front, but when they play a mediocre goalie, they’re not so concerned with it. Just because Antti Niemi doesn’t have a great resume shouldn’t mean that the Canucks shouldn’t become concerned with screening him, bumping him, etc. He put up good numbers against the Predators in round 1, but he’s never really been tested mentally as much as he will this series. Shaking his confidence will be key.

Seabrook and Keith:

No doubt Joel Quenneville will try to get this pairing out against the Sedin line as much as possible. The Sedins will need to outplay them to win the series. It’s also important because both Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith play so many minutes. If the Sedins can tire them out or the other lines can wear them down with body checks and sustained pressure, it will go a long way to helping the Canucks’ cause.

Shutting Down the Hawks Top Guns:

The Blackhawks have a lot of fire power. Toews, Kane, Hossa, Sharp, etc. are very dangerous players and the Canucks will need to keep them in check. That job will be shared primarily by the Canucks defense corps. This is the biggest mismatch going into this series. With 2-3 potent scoring lines, their d-men will be tested big time. Last year the Canucks D seemed incapable of handling the Hawks speed. This year the Canucks have pretty much the same group, save for Christian Ehrhoff in for Mattias Ohlund.

The X-Factor

I believe the X-factor of this series is revenge. The Canucks seem to still be pissed off about last season’s playoff loss and they seem more mature. I also think they’re better equipped to deal with the roller coaster ride that Chicago can take you on with their crazy goal spurts.

What’s Different this Time:

Going into last season’s playoff series against the Blackhawks the Canucks were on a roll. They had ended the regular season well and steam rolled a good young St Louis Blues team. Roberto Luongo was sensational in that series.

The 2008-09 edition of the Canucks was bigger and slower than this edition. Gone are Mattias Ohlund and Mats Sundin. Willie Mitchell is gone due to injury. In are Christian Ehrhoff and Mikael Samuelsson.

As for the Blackhawks, all of their young players are a year older and a year better. Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith have gone from good young players to bonafide superstars. Hossa, Niemi and Madden are the notable additions to their lineup while Havlat, Khabibulin and Barker are the most notable players no longer with their club.

Prediction:

This is a Canucks blog but it is not a homer blog, I’m going to say Chicago in 7. The Canucks have a great opportunity to beat the Blackhawks but they will need either Kevin Bieksa to play like he hasn’t played like in two seasons or Roberto Luongo to get on a roll like he hasn’t been able to do for a few months.  Both are unlikely, which is why I believe Chicago will come out with the series victory.